Biden’s Immigration Gamble – A High-Stakes Dilemma for 2024

President Joe Biden is caught in a political tangle, and how he navigates the intricate dance of immigration reform may very well determine his fate in the 2024 elections. The tightrope he walks involves balancing the expectations of his base, particularly young voters and Latinos, who rallied behind him in 2020, with the growing sentiment among Americans that he should be tougher on immigrants crossing the border.
Former President Donald Trump, ever the political puppeteer, is urging Republicans to let the immigration issue worsen, strategically positioning it as a weapon against Biden in the upcoming elections. Biden, caught between the desire to address the issue and the fear of political fallout, finds himself in a lose-lose situation.
Drawing parallels to Bill Clinton’s tough stance on immigration in 1996, Biden seems inclined to adopt a similar playbook to appeal to moderate, independent, and Republican voters. This strategy, however, has ruffled feathers within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
“We’re going to hurt immigrant communities and a progressive base that needs to see a difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on immigration,” warns Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. The potential for a bipartisan deal has triggered concerns among progressives, fearing that compromises might undermine the core promise of distinctiveness from the Trump era on immigration.
Biden’s gamble is rooted in the belief that immigration reform might not be a make-or-break issue for his base. Republican strategist Mike Madrid argues that immigration has been overemphasized by Democratic Latino voices, suggesting that it might not be the pivotal factor for voters as once perceived.
However, recent polls indicate a drop in support and enthusiasm among key components of Biden’s winning coalition, particularly young voters and Latinos. The traditional rallying cry of the nation being a “land of immigrants” seems to have lost resonance as blue states echo calls for congressional action on the perceived “Biden border crisis.”
Clinton’s tough stance on immigration served as a linchpin for his re-election in 1996, tapping into a national sentiment that felt there were too many immigrants. Presently, a CBS News poll indicates a growing percentage of Americans who believe the Biden administration should be tougher on immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.
Biden’s apparent strategy involves neutralizing Trump’s attacks on him regarding immigration, hoping that broader issues such as the economy, women’s rights, and threats to democracy will be sufficient to rally his base for a second term.
The gamble, however, is not without risks. The landscape has evolved since Clinton’s era, with a larger number of eligible Latino voters than ever before. The estimate stands at around 32 million, and Biden’s approach raises questions about whether he can maintain their support in the face of broken promises.
As the immigration debate is pulled further to the right by Republicans, blame falls on a “tone-deaf president of the United States,” as Luis Gutiérrez, a former Democratic member of the House, notes.
In essence, Biden’s choice to mirror Trump’s approach on immigration is a high-stakes gamble. While he might not gain credit from most Republican voters, there’s a risk of alienating the very demographic that fueled his victory – progressive and Latino voters. The path he chooses may well define the narrative of his presidency and his electoral prospects in 2024.