How Ukraine’s counteroffensive Failed and What Went Wrong

In late July, Ukrainian forces achieved a significant but limited victory when they liberated the tiny village of Staromaiorske in southeastern Ukraine. While this marked a real success in Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive, the campaign has faced challenges that have tempered initial high expectations.

Ukraine had deliberately downplayed expectations regarding the counteroffensive, but several factors fueled optimism, including past Ukrainian successes, Western military aid, and newly trained Ukrainian recruits. However, the reality on the ground has been less favorable. The formidable Russian defenses, extensive minefields, and difficulties in coordinating advanced weaponry and logistics have posed significant obstacles.

The counteroffensive has transitioned to a more attritional strategy focused on degrading critical Russian capabilities, such as artillery, command posts, ammunition supplies, and electronic warfare systems. This shift aims to minimize Ukrainian casualties while increasing reliance on artillery. The new approach is cautious and methodical, slowing down the pace of operations.

Formidable Russian Defenses

One of the most significant challenges for Ukraine has been the extensive Russian fortifications, reminiscent of those seen in Europe during World War II. These defenses stretch across the front lines from Kherson in the south to the north, incorporating complex anti-tank measures and extensive minefields.

The vast minefields, filled with trip-wired or booby-trapped explosives, have hindered Ukrainian advances. Despite their advanced armored vehicles, Ukrainian forces have struggled to maneuver through the dense minefields, exposing them to enemy fire. Russian forces have effectively utilized artillery, drones, and attack helicopters to target Ukrainian units stuck in these areas.

Trenches rigged with explosives further complicate Ukrainian efforts. Russia’s ability to re-fortify and re-mine areas as Ukraine advances adds to the slow progress. These challenges have limited Ukraine’s advances to mere hundreds of meters.

Combined Arms Warfare Struggles

Ukraine’s transformation into a formidable military force, aided by Western military donations, introduced advanced equipment and NATO-trained troops. However, the inexperienced nature of these newly trained troops became apparent during the early stages of the counteroffensive. Ukraine’s attempts to conduct large-scale combined arms operations against Russia’s deep defenses resulted in heavy casualties and equipment losses.

Approximately 20 percent of Western equipment was destroyed or damaged during the initial weeks of the counteroffensive. Ukrainian troops have struggled with logistics, supply challenges, and a reliance on diverse munitions from various countries, leading to imperfect coordination among artillery and other systems.

The Next Phase of the Counteroffensive

Ukraine’s current strategy focuses on three axes of attack, with the goal of reaching the Sea of Azov to disrupt Russian-controlled territory. Progress has been slow and incremental, measuring gains in hundreds of meters. The creeping advance aims to weaken Russian forces and critical components, preserving manpower and equipment but consuming significant artillery resources.

Ukraine has started deploying reserves of newly trained troops into battle, potentially signaling a more intense phase of the counteroffensive. However, committing reserves carries risks, including depleting fresh troops available for rotation or response to battlefield shifts.

Artillery and ammunition play pivotal roles in Ukraine’s attritional strategy. The United States’ controversial decision to provide cluster munitions aims to bolster Ukrainian capabilities, and efforts to ramp up artillery production are underway.

The Clock is Ticking

While there is no official deadline, many Western governments are likely to assess Ukraine’s progress or setbacks by autumn 2023. The front lines have remained relatively unchanged since Ukraine’s success in Kherson in November 2022. If significant developments do not occur within this timeframe, the prospects of a decisive victory for either side become increasingly uncertain.

Despite the challenges, Ukraine retains the potential to succeed in the counteroffensive. The slow and grinding approach may yet yield a breakthrough. As Patrick Bury, a senior lecturer in security at the University of Bath, noted, “There could come a point where they wear down the Russians enough for them to break through somewhere, and then, out in the open, drive those Western tanks. But so far, we’ve not really seen it getting to that point.”